Walikale on the Brink: The M23/AFC Advance and Its Consequences

In the turbulent east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Walikale, a town nestled in the North Kivu province, stands on the verge of collapse. The M23/AFC rebels, having breached the defensive lines of the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), are on the cusp of seizing this strategic stronghold. Gunfire erupted in the afternoon of 19 March in and around Walikale-centre, according to multiple local sources who reported the presence of M23/AFC rebels at the city's gates.

“The rebels have overrun our army's positions,” a source revealed. The breach occurred earlier in the day, specifically in Ngora, 12 kilometres from Walikale-centre. “They may soon push further towards the Kisima district,” added a local resident. The rebels are now just four kilometres from the main town of Walikale, positioned at Mubanda. The city echoes with the sounds of heavy artillery. “Several soldiers are moving along the Kisangani axis,” another source confirmed.

This escalation follows the failure of a meeting between Congolese President Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Kagame in Doha Qatar on March 18, 2025. It could significantly alter the course of the conflict. But why is Walikale, this dusty crossroads, so crucial to the war's trajectory, particularly regarding the provinces of Tshopo and Tanganyika? The answer lies in three key factors: resources, strategic position, and momentum.

A Gold Mine for the Rebels

Walikale is no ordinary town. It is an open-air vault, rich in coltan and other precious minerals that fuel the global tech industry. These resources are not just financial assets—they are the lifeblood of war. For the Kinshasa government, Walikale’s industrial mines generate millions in taxes, a vital source of funding for the FARDC’s operations. Should the M23/AFC rebels seize control, they will not only enrich themselves but also drain the state's coffers, weakening the army’s ability to retaliate. Every kilogram of coltan extracted under their control translates into bullets for their arsenal, a lever to extend and intensify the conflict.

A Gateway to the Interior

However, Walikale’s importance extends beyond economic value. Geographically, this town is a strategic lock. Situated in western North Kivu, it controls the National Road RN3, a strip of asphalt and dust winding deep into the country. If Walikale falls, the rebels will secure a launching pad to extend their influence far beyond their current strongholds.

To the north, the Tshopo province, with Kisangani—the DRC’s third-largest city and a crucial logistics hub—becomes a potential target. Capturing Kisangani would strike at a symbolic and strategic level, rekindling the ghosts of the Second Congo War and threatening the country’s economic and political core.

To the south, Tanganyika, bordered by the lake of the same name, presents another potential theatre of expansion. Though less direct than the northern route, access to this province could disrupt military supply lines and destabilize a region already plagued by internal conflicts. Walikale, in essence, is not just a prize—it is a springboard for a broader offensive, a pivot that could shift the balance of power in eastern Congo.

A Devastating Psychological Blow

Beyond resources and geography, Walikale’s fall is inflicting a severe blow to the morale of the FARDC and its allies. For the rebels, this would be a resounding victory, a clear signal that their advance is unstoppable. The army's recent setbacks—lost villages, defections to the enemy camp—only amplify this momentum.

Despite the government’s offer of a $5 million bounty for the capture of M23/AFC leaders, the threat continues to grow. If Walikale soon falls under rebel control, despair could seep into the ranks of the army, while the M23/AFC gains confidence. This breakthrough would also strengthen their narrative: that of a movement capable of defying Kinshasa, perhaps even daring to march toward the capital.

Toward Tshopo and Tanganyika: A Growing Threat

The possibility of the conflict spilling into Tshopo and Tanganyika is not far-fetched. From Walikale, the rebels could exploit road networks and resources to threaten these provinces, either directly or by spreading chaos along their peripheries.

In Tshopo, taking Kisangani would be a masterstroke, crippling military operations and opening a new front in the north. In Tanganyika, instability could attract other armed groups, triggering a domino effect beyond anyone's control. Even if the M23/AFC lacks the resources to permanently occupy these vast territories, their mere ability to project a threat there would stretch the DRC’s defences to the breaking point.

A Conflict on the Brink of Conflagration

The failure of the Doha peace talks has dashed hopes for a peaceful resolution. Now, every move on the battlefield carries immense weight. The imminent capture of Walikale by the M23/AFC is not merely a local skirmish—it is a pivotal moment that could set the entire eastern Congo ablaze. For the people of Tshopo and Tanganyika, the spectre of the rebels’ looms on the horizon, carried by the winds of war blowing from Walikale. The DRC holds its breath, for what unfolds here extends beyond North Kivu: it is the fate of a nation teetering on the edge of the abyss.