Senegal’s Political Transition and Election Aftermath

Senegal’s political and security landscape has undergone significant shifts following the presidential election on March 24, 2024. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, an opposition candidate from the PASTEF party, emerged victorious in the first round, marking a peaceful transition of power. This reinforced Senegal’s reputation as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies, despite earlier turbulence.

Economic Priorities and Challenges Under Faye’s Administration

Faye’s administration, backed by a PASTEF parliamentary majority secured in snap legislative elections in November 2024, has prioritized economic independence. The government aims to reduce reliance on foreign aid and leverage hydrocarbon revenues to drive growth. However, challenges persist, including fiscal imbalances and short-term liquidity issues. Despite these concerns, Senegal’s economy is projected to grow by 8% in 2025, fueled by oil and gas production.

The Legacy of Macky Sall and Pre-Election Unrest

Faye’s rise to power followed a period of unrest under former President Macky Sall (2012–2024). Sall’s tenure was marred by accusations of corruption, human rights abuses, and attempts to extend his rule. His decision to postpone the February 2024 election to December sparked widespread protests, violent crackdowns, and allegations of a constitutional coup, with security forces reportedly causing over 56 deaths across multiple demonstrations. The dissolution of PASTEF in July 2023 and the arrest of its leader, Ousmane Sonko, further fueled tensions. However, Sonko’s influence ultimately paved the way for Faye’s candidacy. Sall’s eventual decision not to seek a third term and the Constitutional Council’s insistence on adhering to electoral timelines helped prevent a deeper crisis.

Security Landscape: Stability, Conflicts, and Border Threats

Senegal remains relatively stable compared to its Sahel neighbors, where military coups have proliferated. A notable development is the March 2025 peace agreement with separatist rebels in the Casamance region, potentially ending a decades-long conflict that has sporadically disrupted southern Senegal. However, security threats persist along the eastern border with Mali, where terrorism and organized crime continue to pose risks. Additionally, landmines and banditry remain concerns in Casamance.

Senegal’s Shift in Foreign and Defense Policy

A major shift in Senegal’s foreign and defense policy came on April 1, 2025, when the government formally requested French troops stationed in the country to leave. This move reflects growing anti-French sentiment across West Africa, where calls for the removal of French military presence have intensified. The French forces, previously stationed in Senegal as part of regional security cooperation, are now set to be redeployed to Mauritania. This decision aligns with a broader trend of African nations seeking greater sovereignty in defense matters.

The Waning French Influence and Russia’s Emerging Role

As France’s influence declines, Russia is positioning itself as a key player in Senegal’s security future. While a direct coup like those seen in Mali or Burkina Faso is unlikely, Russia may seek to strengthen diplomatic and military ties through political alliances, economic cooperation, and arms agreements. Russian involvement could expand through security training programs, intelligence-sharing agreements, and strategic partnerships aimed at reducing Senegal’s dependence on Western powers. Additionally, Russia is expected to play a role in regional negotiations between Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and ECOWAS, further cementing its influence in West Africa.

Senegal’s Future: Stability, Sovereignty, and Geopolitical Shifts

Senegal’s trajectory under Faye suggests cautious optimism, with political stability supported by democratic processes and economic promise tempered by security concerns. The country’s growing assertion of sovereignty, particularly in defense and foreign policy, marks a pivotal moment in its post-colonial history, with long-term implications for regional power balances.