African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Benin: Northern Attacks, Fuel Pressure, and Regional Security Cooperation Define the Incoming Government’s Stability Challenge
Benin is entering a more difficult security and economic phase. The March attacks in Alibori and Atacora confirm that JNIM remains capable of striking Beninese military positions, seizing equipment, and operating across border areas linked to Niger, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria.
Mali: Humanitarian Flight Suspension and Expanding Extremist Pressure Signal a Deteriorating National Security Environment
Mali’s security environment is no longer defined by isolated insurgent pressure in the north and centre. The pattern now points to a wider national threat picture: JNIM continues to shape conditions in central and northern Mali while pushing deeper into the south and west; ISSP remains active in Gao and Ménaka; northern armed groups retain the ability to challenge Malian military positions; and humanitarian access is increasingly vulnerable to state-imposed restrictions as well as armed-group pressure.
Mauritania/Mali: Border Incursions Expose Rising Friction Along a Volatile Sahel Frontier
The Mauritania–Mali border is entering a more sensitive phase. Reported movements by Malian Armed Forces and Africa Corps elements near the shared frontier, incidents affecting Mauritanian civilians, and accusations linked to refugee camps have created renewed diplomatic strain between Nouakchott and Bamako.
Announced Extremist Arrests Highlight Transit, Recruitment, and Radicalisation Risks in Upper Guinea
Guinea’s announcement of terrorism-linked arrests in Kankan, Siguiri, and Mandiana confirms a threat picture that has been developing for some time: northern Guinea is exposed to extremist penetration, online radicalisation, cross-border movement, and criminal facilitation networks linked to the wider Mali conflict.
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ASA Situation Reports™
Access on Request | DRC – The Anatomy of a Security State in Structural Decline
This report provides an in-depth strategic assessment of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s accelerating sovereignty crisis from within—where the decisive risk is no longer only territorial loss in the east, but the erosion of command authority, fiscal control, and security governance across the state’s own architecture.
India–Africa Forum Summit IV: Strategic Partnership Reconfiguration and Geopolitical Positioning
The fourth India–Africa Forum Summit marks a significant moment in the reconfiguration of Africa’s external partnership landscape. Its importance extends beyond India–Africa relations alone.
Lake Chad Basin Pressure, Guinea-Bissau Political Fragility, and the Counter-Terrorism Architecture
The closing phase of the AU Peace and Security Council’s May 2026 programme brings together three connected pressures on Africa’s security architecture: the persistence of adaptive jihadist violence in the Lake Chad Basin, the fragile post-coup transition in Guinea-Bissau, and the need to recalibrate AU institutional instruments for counter-terrorism, early warning, and field coordination.
AU Peace and Security Architecture
The African Union’s peace and security architecture is entering a credibility test. The continent has built a sophisticated institutional framework for conflict prevention, crisis response, peace support operations, and regional security coordination.
Transnational Organised Crime in Africa
Transnational organised crime in Africa has moved beyond the category of secondary security concern. It is now a structural driver of conflict, institutional erosion, illicit political financing, and armed group resilience across multiple theatres.
AU Peace and Security Council — Nigeria’s Chairmanship, Climate-Security Nexus, and the Operational Gap
Nigeria’s assumption of the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) chairmanship in May 2026 brings forward an agenda of real strategic importance, but one constrained by familiar institutional limits.
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