African Security Analysis
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Security Updates
Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor
Between 31 January and 2 February, Kisangani’s Bangboka airport area was struck by multiple explosive-laden drones, in an incident that drew national attention because it suggested the conflict’s reach could extend well beyond the usual eastern frontlines.
Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order
Less than three years after the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, northern Ethiopia is once again experiencing a deterioration in security conditions.
Strategic Interdiction of Fuel Supply Lines and Hostage Leverage by JNIM
On the morning of 29 January 2026, Mali experienced one of the most consequential jihadist operations of recent months, not due to its symbolic value, but because of its systemic strategic impact. A large fuel convoy originating from Senegal and transiting through western Mali along the Diboli–Kayes corridor was ambushed and neutralized by an estimated 100 fighters affiliated with Katiba Macina, a core component of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).
Niamey Airport Attack: Islamic State Claims Responsibility
Less than 48 hours after the assault on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey on 29 January 2026, the IS-Sahel formally claimed responsibility. ASA assesses this confirms the attack was not an isolated security breach, but a deliberate, high-value operation aimed at Niger’s military and strategic infrastructure.
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ASA Situation Reports™
Access on Request | Islamic State Strikes a Strategic Symbol by Targeting Niamey Airport
Provides an in-depth strategic analysis of the Islamic State attack on Niamey’s international airport and military air base – one of the most sensitive symbols of Nigerien state sovereignty.
Cabinda: Unilateral Declaration of Independence and The Strategic Fault Lines of Angola’s Petro-State
The unilateral proclamation of independence of Cabinda by the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) marks a significant escalation in one of Africa’s longest-running, yet often sidelined, sovereignty disputes.
A U.S. Envoy in Bamako to Test the Recalibration of Bilateral Relations
In early February, a senior official from the United States Department of State conducted an official visit to Bamako, signalling Washington’s intent to cautiously re-engage with Mali amid a rapidly evolving regional and geopolitical landscape.
Mineral Sovereignty, Economic Diplomacy, and Geopolitical Reconfiguration Around Congolese Gold
After more than two years of largely discreet negotiations, the DRC is moving toward a significant diplomatic and economic engagement with the Gulf. On Monday, 2 February, President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo met in Abu Dhabi with Emir Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at Qasr Al Watan, amid preparations to sign a CEPA between the DRC and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Central African Republic: Consolidation under Constraint
CAR has entered a post-election consolidation phase following the combined presidential, legislative, and local elections of 28 Dec 2025. While the electoral process was conducted with relative calm across much of the country and resulted in the re-election of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, the underlying security and governance environment remains uneven and fragile.
Sudan at the Threshold of Irreversibility
Sudan is entering a new phase of strategic fragmentation, marked by intensified multi-front military operations, deepening humanitarian collapse, and the hardening of political positions among domestic and international stakeholders.
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