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Security Updates
Benin: Wadagni Opens a Strategic Reset with the Sahel Juntas
Benin’s new president, Romuald Wadagni, has moved quickly to reset relations with Niger, Burkina Faso, and the wider AES. His early diplomacy marks a clear shift from the confrontational posture of the Patrice Talon era, particularly toward Niger, where bilateral relations had deteriorated sharply after the 2023 coup.
Burkina Faso: Arrest of Influential Imam Exposes Regime Sensitivity to Religious Authority
The detention of Imam Mohamed Ishaq Kindo marks a significant escalation in Burkina Faso’s internal control environment. What began as a dispute over proposed regulation of religious practice has moved quickly into a broader test of the Traoré government’s tolerance for independent authority, public mobilisation, and criticism from constituencies that are not easily dismissed as political opposition.
ADF/ISCAP Expansion into Haut-Uélé — Strategic Mutation, Security Vulnerabilities and Regional Counter-Terrorism Requirements
ADF/ISCAP operational movement into Haut-Uélé represents a significant strategic development in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The group is no longer operating only as a threat concentrated around its traditional zones in Beni, Ituri and adjacent forest corridors.
Benin: Northern Attacks, Fuel Pressure, and Regional Security Cooperation Define the Incoming Government’s Stability Challenge
Benin is entering a more difficult security and economic phase. The March attacks in Alibori and Atacora confirm that JNIM remains capable of striking Beninese military positions, seizing equipment, and operating across border areas linked to Niger, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria.
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Eastern DRC: MONUSCO Constraints, Humanitarian Access and Ebola as a Security Multiplier
Eastern DRC is facing overlapping security, humanitarian and public health emergencies. MONUSCO remains the only large international civilian-protection instrument in the theatre, but its operational capacity has been weakened by financial constraints, movement restrictions, legitimacy erosion and an increasingly complex conflict environment.
Eastern DRC: Armed Group Fragmentation, Mineral Revenues and the Conflict Economy
The eastern DRC crisis is not a single conflict. It is an ecosystem of conflicts sustained by distinct mobilisation logics, overlapping armed actors and a profitable conflict economy. M23/AFC, the ADF, CODECO, FARDC-aligned militias and local armed networks do not all respond to the same incentives, and many are only partially connected to the diplomatic processes designed to address the crisis.
DRC: Peace Diplomacy, Verification Risks and the Implementation Trap
DRC has entered a phase of intense diplomatic activity without a matching reduction in battlefield violence. The Washington Accords, the Doha Framework and the African Union-led mediation process together form the most elaborate peace architecture assembled around eastern DRC in a generation.
South Sudan’s December Election Date Raises the Stakes for a Fragile Transition
South Sudan’s decision to set 22 December 2026 as the date for its first general elections since independence is a major political milestone.
South Sudan’s Fifteen Years of Independence, 70 billion Dollars in Oil, and the Failure of a Rentier State
South Sudan represents one of the most acute cases of resource-security failure on the African continent. Since independence in July 2011, the country has generated an estimated USD 70 billion in gross petroleum value — yet per capita GDP has collapsed by nearly two-thirds, the state remains dependent on international aid, and the nation ranks last globally on the UNDP Human Development Index.
MALI-JNIM–FLA Mobilisation and the Risk of a Renewed Coordinated Offensive
Mali appears to be entering a new phase of heightened military and political tension following the coordinated attacks of 25 April. Recent communication patterns from both JNIM and the FLA suggest an increased risk of renewed offensive action against Malian state positions, particularly in northern Mali.
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