African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
Early Warning: Kisangani and the Northern Corridor
Between 31 January and 2 February, Kisangani’s Bangboka airport area was struck by multiple explosive-laden drones, in an incident that drew national attention because it suggested the conflict’s reach could extend well beyond the usual eastern frontlines.
Renewed Fighting in Tigray Signals the Fragility of the Post-Pretoria Order
Less than three years after the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, northern Ethiopia is once again experiencing a deterioration in security conditions.
Strategic Interdiction of Fuel Supply Lines and Hostage Leverage by JNIM
On the morning of 29 January 2026, Mali experienced one of the most consequential jihadist operations of recent months, not due to its symbolic value, but because of its systemic strategic impact. A large fuel convoy originating from Senegal and transiting through western Mali along the Diboli–Kayes corridor was ambushed and neutralized by an estimated 100 fighters affiliated with Katiba Macina, a core component of the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).
Niamey Airport Attack: Islamic State Claims Responsibility
Less than 48 hours after the assault on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey on 29 January 2026, the IS-Sahel formally claimed responsibility. ASA assesses this confirms the attack was not an isolated security breach, but a deliberate, high-value operation aimed at Niger’s military and strategic infrastructure.
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Central African Republic: Consolidation under Constraint
CAR has entered a post-election consolidation phase following the combined presidential, legislative, and local elections of 28 Dec 2025. While the electoral process was conducted with relative calm across much of the country and resulted in the re-election of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, the underlying security and governance environment remains uneven and fragile.
Sudan at the Threshold of Irreversibility
Sudan is entering a new phase of strategic fragmentation, marked by intensified multi-front military operations, deepening humanitarian collapse, and the hardening of political positions among domestic and international stakeholders.
South Sudan at the Brink of Relapse
South Sudan is no longer operating within the stabilizing logic of the 2018 R-ARCSS. The country has entered a pre-relapse phase, characterized by widespread armed mobilization, erosion of political trust, systematic weakening of opposition participation, and increasing tolerance for violence against civilians as a tactical instrument.
Libya at a Strategic Standstill
Libya remains locked in a protracted political and institutional stalemate, with rival authorities entrenched in competing governance structures and no credible pathway yet established toward national elections or unified state institutions.
Niger and Algeria Reignite Strategic Cooperation Around the Kafra Oil Block
Niger and Algeria have entered a new phase of strategic energy cooperation with the decision to relaunch joint hydrocarbon projects, placing the Kafra oil block in northern Niger at the centre of renewed bilateral engagement.
China–Africa Financial Relations Enter a Historic Reversal
Africa’s financial relationship with China has entered a new phase: net debt-related flows have turned negative—meaning African countries now pay more to China in principal and interest than they receive in new Chinese loan disbursements, according to ONE Data’s net-transfer analysis.
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