Escalating Tensions in South Sudan: Risk of Renewed Conflict

Diplomatic and Military Responses

The United States has ordered the evacuation of diplomatic personnel from Juba, the capital of South Sudan, while Uganda has deployed special forces to the city. These actions mirror the response to the outbreak of South Sudan’s last civil war in 2013, signalling a credible risk of renewed violence.

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a conflict analysis think tank, issued a stark warning on March 7, stating that "South Sudan is on the precipice of full-blown war." The group linked this crisis to the ongoing war in neighbouring Sudan, warning that South Sudan’s fragile peace is now at risk due to the regional conflict.

A Region on the Brink of War

South Sudan is not the only nation facing turmoil. Conflicts are ongoing in Sudan, Somalia, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Tensions are also rising between Eritrea and Ethiopia, and within Ethiopia itself. This instability threatens to ignite a regional crisis reminiscent of the late Cold War period, when African nations were destabilized by external and internal conflicts.

Historical Context: South Sudan’s Fragile Peace

During the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005), multiple regional powers—including Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Iran—intervened in the conflict. This war ultimately led to the secession of South Sudan in 2011. However, South Sudan fell back into conflict almost immediately, as rival factions within the former rebel army (SPLA, now SSPDF) fought for control of the new nation. The civil war lasted from 2013 to 2018, with sporadic outbreaks of violence continuing.

While South Sudan was spared from direct violence when Sudan plunged into civil war in 2023, it suffered economically. The closure of an oil pipeline—a crucial source of revenue—plunged the country into a fiscal crisis, leaving soldiers and civil servants unpaid for months or even years. This financial strain has weakened President Salva Kiir’s ability to maintain stability.

Unpaid Soldiers, Rising Tensions, and Renewed Clashes

The ICG noted that South Sudan’s economic woes have deprived the president of funds needed to sustain his patronage network, increasing widespread discontent. Former opposition fighters, who were supposed to be demobilized under the 2018 peace agreement, remain armed and independent.

Last week, violence erupted in Nasir, a stronghold near the Ethiopian border, between SSPDF troops and the ‘White Army,’ a Nuer militia linked to the opposition SPLM-IO. A South Sudanese army base was overrun, with a battalion of troops killed or scattered. The clashes were reportedly triggered by fears of forced disarmament by the government.

During the evacuation of SSPDF troops from Nasir, a UN helicopter crew member was killed when Nuer militia fighters opened fire. In response, security forces in Juba arrested high-profile SPLM-IO officials and military officers, most of whom belong to the Nuer ethnic minority. The ICG warned that these arrests endanger the fragile unity government formed under the 2018 peace deal, stating, "Tension in the capital Juba is sky-high... More combat in Upper Nile is likely. From there, it risks merging with the war in Sudan, potentially triggering prolonged proxy fighting in South Sudan."

Uganda Backs President Kiir Amid Rising Unrest

Uganda’s military chief, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of President Yoweri Museveni, recently announced on social media that Uganda’s army would support President Kiir against armed opposition. "We, the UPDF, only recognize ONE President of South Sudan, H.E. Salva Kiir," he declared, warning that any move against Kiir would be considered a declaration of war against Uganda.

A video shared by Kainerugaba showed Ugandan troops arriving at Juba International Airport. Flight tracking data confirmed that at least one Ugandan military flight landed in Juba on March 11, coinciding with the U.S. evacuation of diplomats. Footage of Ugandan soldiers moving through Juba has fueled speculation that Kiir’s government is paying them while South Sudanese troops remain unpaid, exacerbating grievances within the army.

Political Uncertainty and Succession Struggles

South Sudan has not held elections since gaining independence in 2011, and President Kiir’s deteriorating health has intensified political manoeuvring. Analysts suggest that rather than preparing for elections, South Sudan’s leadership is focused on Kiir’s eventual succession. Alan Boswell of the ICG explained, "The political jockeying in Juba is no longer about elections—it’s about President Kiir and his succession."

Kiir’s erratic leadership, frequent firings of key officials, and shrinking financial resources have left his administration increasingly unstable. His recent cabinet reshuffles, including the dismissal of two vice presidents, are widely seen as an effort to position his close adviser, Benjamin Bol Mel, as his successor.

UAE Strengthens Ties with South Sudan

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has expanded its presence in South Sudan, raising concerns about its broader regional ambitions. The UAE recently opened the Madhol Field Hospital near the Sudanese border. A similar UAE-backed hospital in Chad was revealed by The New York Times to be a cover for weapons smuggling to Sudanese paramilitaries. Sudanese military officials suspect the South Sudan hospital may serve a similar purpose, further straining relations between Juba and Khartoum.

South Sudan’s Foreign Minister denied the allegations, insisting the hospital was built in a region with urgent medical needs. However, tensions escalated further after Sudan’s military accused South Sudan of aligning with the RSF, a Sudanese paramilitary group that has been fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

Regional Diplomacy: The Last Hope to Prevent War

Given the growing tensions, regional leaders have begun diplomatic interventions. Kenyan President William Ruto recently called both Kiir and Machar, urging them to engage in dialogue. The ICG has suggested that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the UN peacekeeping mission in Sudan could also play crucial roles in preventing an all-out war.

The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has been urged to prepare contingency plans to protect civilians, including providing shelter in UN bases should violence erupt. The situation remains precarious, with fears of ethnic massacres and prolonged regional conflict looming large.

As the crisis deepens, swift diplomatic efforts are needed to prevent South Sudan from slipping back into full-scale war and ethnic bloodshed. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the country’s fate.