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Updates
The Alliance of Sahel States and the Push Toward the Gulf of Guinea: The Failed Coup in Benin as a Signal of Expanding Sahelian Influence
The attempted coup in Benin on 7 December 2025 goes beyond a failed domestic power grab. It reveals a broader and increasingly assertive strategy by the AES – comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – to project influence into the coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea.
Niger–Uranium: Russian Vessel off Lomé, Stalled Yellowcake Convoy, and the Emerging Risk of an Airlift Scenario
The prolonged immobilization of Niger’s yellowcake (uranium concentrate) convoy at Niamey military airport, combined with the presence of the Russian bulk carrier MATROS SHEVCHENKO off the coast of Lomé, reveals a growing logistical and strategic impasse.
Preliminary Situation Report: AFC/M23 Capture of Uvira, South Kivu
Armed elements of the AFC/M23 coalition have taken control of Uvira in South Kivu following a short but decisive sequence of operations. The pattern observed mirrors, with striking similarity, the approach previously used during the fall of Bukavu.
AES–Nigeria: Emergency Landing of Nigerian Military Aircraft Sparks New Airspace Tensions in the Sahel
The diplomatic confrontation between the AES — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — and Nigeria escalated sharply following the unannounced landing of a Nigerian Air Force C-130 in Burkina Faso. What Abuja describes as a routine “technical emergency” has been interpreted by the AES as a serious breach of sovereign airspace in a region already polarized by military realignments, contested air control, and deep strategic distrust.
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