African Security Analysis
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Security Updates
CRITICAL UPDATE: Security Incident at Upemba National Park
Following the armed incursion targeting the Lusinga headquarters of Upemba National Park in Haut-Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on 03 March 2026, additional information has emerged regarding the situation on the ground.
STRATEGIC WARNING NOTICE: Security Incident – Lusinga, Upemba National Park Headquarters, Haut-Katanga, DRC
African Security Analysis (ASA) is assessing credible field reports that a serious security incident took place on the morning of Tuesday, 3 March 2026, at Lusinga, the headquarters of Upemba National Park (UNP) in Haut-Katanga Province, southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
The Iran Conflict and the Strategic Repositioning of African Oil Producers
The sharp escalation between the United States and Iran following the launch of Operation “Epic Fury” has triggered a systemic shock to global energy markets. Brent crude surged over 8% within hours on 2 March, climbing from $73 to nearly $79 per barrel at Asian market open.
Sudan Rejects U.S.-Backed Ceasefire Framework as War Enters Protracted Phase
On 24 February 2026, Sudan’s government formally rejected a U.S.-supported ceasefire roadmap presented days earlier before the United Nations Security Council.
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Southern Africa Strategic Economic Brief
On 25 February 2026, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Mines and Mining Development, Polite Kambamura, announced the immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, including cargo already in transit.
Horn of Africa: Strategic Brief Somaliland–Somalia Competition for U.S. Military and Mineral Access
As of early March 2026, the Horn of Africa has entered a new phase of geopolitical competition cantered on strategic minerals and military basing rights. Somaliland and the Federal Government of Somalia are actively positioning themselves as alternative gateways for U.S. military access and critical mineral partnerships.
ECOWAS Standby Force Activation Amid Sustained Insurgent Pressure
At the conclusion of a three-day summit in Freetown on 27 February 2026, Chiefs of Defence Staff of ECOWAS member states formalized the operational framework of a long-discussed regional Standby Force.
Southern Africa Strategic Brief: Malawi Enters the U.S. Strategic Minerals Pipeline via Project Vault
Malawi has entered the emerging architecture of U.S. critical minerals security through a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between Sovereign Metals (SVM) and Traxys North America at the 2026 Mining Indaba.
Air Mobility as Strategic Infrastructure in Africa
Recent developments in Tunisia and Botswana reflect a broader strategic trend across the African continent: the reinforcement of air mobility as a pillar of national defence and regional stabilization.
Russia’s Expanding Security Footprint in Equatorial Guinea
Russia’s expanding presence in Equatorial Guinea could be viewed as a calibrated dual-track strategy combining cultural diplomacy and security entrenchment.
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As trusted advisors and analysts, we offer the critical insights and understanding these leaders need to navigate complex security environments. Through long-standing personal relationships, we've supported them for years, ensuring they have the right information to make informed and impactful decisions when it matters most.
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