African
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Security Analysis and Consultancy for Public, Private and Government Sectors.
Updates
Sahel Risk — U.S. Withdrawal From a Global Extremism-Prevention Fund Widens the “Prevention Gap”
The United States has ended its support for a major international fund dedicated to preventing violent extremism at a moment when militant recruitment and insurgent activity are expanding — particularly across parts of the Sahel and wider Africa.
Christmas Airstrikes in Nigeria: Counterterrorism and Geopolitical Implications
On Christmas Day 2025, the United States carried out precision air and naval strikes against Islamist militants in Sokoto State, a remote area of northwest Nigeria.
Mandate Without Unity: Somalia, Al-Shabaab, and the Security Council’s Strategic Dissonance
On 23 December, the UN Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the AUSSOM until 31 December 2026. The decision, while procedurally routine, comes at a strategic inflection point. Somalia’s security environment remains precarious, Al-Shabaab is resurging, donor fatigue is rising, and multilateral coordination is increasingly fragile.
Madagascar: Covert Presidential Travel Signals Security Anxiety, Privatized Control Logic, and Resource-Sovereignty Stress
President Michael Randrianirina’s undisclosed trip to Dubai is not a diplomatic anomaly but a signal event. Conducted amid an unresolved internal security environment and coinciding with the launch of a promised national consultation, the visit reflects a presidency operating under perceived existential threat and seeking extra-institutional solutions to regime security and state control.
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